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Yes, but I also said….

Don’t get hung up on the friend situation, either, I could just as well have sold a house and been waiting to purchase another one.

I thought about going back and replacing my anecdote about a friend asking me to hold his money with something less distracting…but ended up settling for the little blurb I quote above. Unfortunately, the friend part is the only part of my post that Donovan seems to have noticed.

Donovan jumps on my "friend" anecdote because it allows him to focus on the "form" over the "substance". It sounds like he’s refuting my point, but in fact, he ignores it. Addressing it properly would have involved consideration of the situation where I sell a house and have to hold the money for a while.

In accounting, the concept of "substance over form" is an important one; it’s a primary one. In this argument, what you do with the money specifically is the "form". What your obligations are with respect to that money is the substance. Donovan confuses an entity putting money that it is holding (with a fiduciary responsibility) to the best use it can find, with the money somehow being separated from the fiduciary responsibility.

But we’re talking about an administrative function here. Temporarily using the money being held in social security for other uses is exactly analogous to overnighting the money in your business accounts overseas to earn interest. You are merely putting the money to the best available use. This is sound financial management. This doesn’t change your responsibilities at all and I don’t see how one could argue differently.

To continue the analogy, in the present case what we have is that the stewards of all moneys have been reckless and derelict. I agree that they are trying to execute a transfer of value to the rich…if that’s what you mean. But what the hell does that have to do with Social Security?

Suppose I run up huge medical bills and have no money other than that set aside for my child’s college tuition. What I would do (and you could choose to do something different, so spare me the lecture) is raid the college fund to pay the bills so I don’t go bankrupt and lose the college fund anyway (spare me any legalese about college funds in bankruptcy court, etc…. you hereby agree that such a vein would be irrelevant and ridiculous to pursue).

I then would pay back the money to the college fund as time went by and I could afford to do so. If I had promised this to my kid or had some legal arrangment that required me to provide the fund, the analogy would be better. If I had run up huge credit card bills financing a war on foreign soil and letting my wife not have to work and stay home all day eating Bon Bons… the analogy would be better.

But all we’re talking about is how I manage my money. All talk of income taxes is irrelevant to the obligations of the United States to honor its fiduciary responsibilities with respect to Social Security. What it does with the money in the interim shouldn’t matter. Again, the focus here ought to be on the stewards of the money. They’re the ones in the business of managing the moneys to make sure the obligations are met. Regardless of how much anyone argues the point, the reality is that over the years over 8 trillion has been paid in and over 7 trillion has been paid out.

Bush has managed to distract the people from the fact that he’s trying to steal their money. He’s doing in fact what I said I would do to my friend in jest… he’s saying, "we don’t owe you any money… what are you talking about? There’s no money…."

HE’S TRYING TO STEAL THE MONEY, PEOPLE!

Can’t you stop focusing on trying to handcuff the money managers in their money management responsibilities and focus instead on handcuffing them for their fraudulent activies with respect to the funding of the government? The income tax giveaway should be retroactively repealed… but this has NOTHING to do with Social Security.

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Inch by inch… bit by bit….

Oh, we are getting closer…!

I have to run out right now so I’ll read the details in Gab’s latest soon.

Just to float a starter, though, the chart says that in 1960 there were 5.1 workers per benficiary!

OK…that blows my Elvis theory out of the water!

 " ….. Something happened between 1950 and 1975 that caused the rate to plunge from 16.5 to 3.3 workers per beneficiary? I suppose it coincides neatly with the career of Elvis Presley… but I have a hard time believing that Elvis’s death sent everyone into early retirement."

Elvis was around long after 1960… hmmm….The big drop seems to be 1950 when there were 16.5 workers per retiree to 1960 when there were only 5.1! Could ten workers per retiree… unbeknownst to the world… without anyone perceiving the absence… have been sucked into…The Twilight Zone?

In 1959, Fidel Castro took power in Cuba… could that have caused the drop?

Gab, I don’t disagree that there’s been a decline. I disagree that it could have been as precipitous as has been accepted, and I disagree that the future ratios can be foreseen with great precision.

More later… but dot you see the 16.5 number is necessarily wrong and only thrown around to support the fraudulent claim that the program is inherently unworkable?

 

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Show me the money!

Remember a long time ago when I asked Guy Catelli the following:

When you retire with private accounts you are forced to convert them to an annuity. This requires you to estimate how long you are planning to live. With Social Security, if you die two months after you retire the system paid two months (ok, survivor benefits, etc., but in general…) and then you died. The pooling of the risk means that some people living in retirement for 30 years and some for two months balance out. As an individual, you can’t know at the time you are retiring that you have 30 years left in you. Over how long a period of time would you spread out your private accounts annuity? How can you get a guaranteed revenue stream for your unknown remaining life with a fixed amount of money?

Give me a scenario, Guy… suppose I have a present value of $150,000 in my private account when I retire. I suppose I can have a guaranteed revenue stream (adjusted for the time value of money of course) of $25,000 per year… for about six years. Then what?

Help me understand it, Guy. I know if I retire with $20 million in my private account that I can get by for however many years I have left… but how do I get by with $150,000 when I don’t know how much longer I’m going to live?

One more time so you don’t go down the wrong track… if a thousand people each retire under the current scenario, some will die soon and some will die late…on the average, they may end up spending $150,000. But with private accounts, each person has to decide how long they are going to live so they can allocate their own fixed and limited amount. Again… in the current scenario, one guy had spent $275,000, another had spent $25,000 at the time he expired, etc. They could do this because of the pooling of interests.

Do you know something I don’t know, Guy? How many years exactly are you going to live after you retire?

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My name is Nick, and I don’t think Social Security is in trouble

The affirmation in the title is to remind myself as well as others that I’m not one that believes that Social Security is in trouble. I think it needs very minor adjustments.

What have I said to make Donovan accuse me otherwise?

Nick, Andy, JoeC and Guy all remain convinced that the great problem to social security is the demographic problem that may arise in a few decades if things continue changing the way some people predict they might but aren’t certain because all those long-term projections are based on completely funny suggestions like the world won’t change.  Even so, they continue fearing those effects far away.

Or these?

Nick and JoeC are still being suckered into a completely different type of reasoning than this basic capitalism, which suggests that demographics dictate wealth.

Nick - if you’re confused by Guy’s position, it’s because Guy is confused by capitalism and socialism.  While he hates the latter, he’s willing to accept its frame of reference when it gives him a ground for critiquing social security.  But come on, Nick, you’re a capitalist!  You gotta acknowledge that flows don’t work the old way anymore - at least, they don’t have to.



Come on over to the "anti-comingler" crowd - you know you want to…

Donovan, your "flows model" doesn’t square with your position. After all, "don’t comingle" effectively means "put aside"… and you can no more put aside the flows with social security than you can with water…unless you create a reservoir. Now, of course, the water analogy requires a reservoir but only for the temporary handling of flows… not to store each person’s accumulated water.

Come on, Don, don’t you really mean you want to see the network tweaked to facilitate the flows of a little more water today and a little less tomorrow….? Life over here in the "make minor adjustments to deal with changing circumstances" crowd is really quite pleasant and inviting… let me send you a brochure… whaddya say?

I’ll throw in free unlimited posting on whereIstand if you make the move today….

There is no benefit at all in creating legislation to "de-comingle" the social security money today versus creating legislation to specify that the government will honor the obligations tomorrow. Gab is right when she says:

…the government should be anticipating paying back a certain number of bonds in future years and should be planning to do so when creating fiscal policy. Instead, it has ignored its own accounting issues, created unnecessary deficits and debt, and then has cried about how Social Security is going broke. Not so, the government is going broke.

This doesn’t actually square with the de-comingle argument. If you accept that the government is inherently fiscally irresponsible, then you could continue arguing that the funds must be separate. But this is a tremendously cynical argument. If the government can’t be trusted to account properly for funds, then it can’t be trusted with funds at all. I don’t believe this, of course, I just mean that it’s a slippery slope from here to registering for the next elections as a Montana Freeman.

The fact that George Bush has violated every fiduciary and ethical responsibility that has been placed in his trust is a matter for his future impeachment or decimation in the history books. We should always replace the administrators we have reason to mistrust rather than change the system to keep them from stealing from us.

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A logical conclusion?

Guy is constantly reminding us that there’s no money in social security… that I and my ilk imagine the existence of a "Trust Fund" that lacks any funds and in which no one has any trust.

From this I derive the following mathematical proof:

1. If there is no fund, then Guy Catelli can’t possibly have any money accumulated to his name since this money would be in the form of a "worthless IOU".

2. If Guy Catelli has no money in the current Social Security program, then going to a private accounts model means one of two things: he either starts again at zero, or the government has to come up with the money to initially fund his private account.

3. Guy doesnt’ want to start again at zero… he may not know he’s a chicken little, but he sure does know he’s no spring chicken….

4. Therefore, Guy expects the government to somehow come up with the money to fund his private account. But if the government were to come up with that money it would contradict everything else he has said about the trust fund or the government’s ability or intent to pay the obligations.

Now, there could be another explanation here… psst, Guy… over here… did you mean to have it both ways?

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The Self-Destruction of Guy Catelli

Guy writes:

Nick, you ignorant slut!  the first payment to a retiree did not occur until 1937 (for all of 17 cents).  therefore, in 1950 the only beneficiaries were those who comprised that portion of the labor force in 1935 who were already over 50 years of age.

In the quote above, Guy links to a peculiar web site. Go there, please. Scroll up a little bit and you’ll read this:

Trust Funds

After Social Security numbers were assigned, the first Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes were collected, beginning in January 1937. Special Trust Funds were created for these dedicated revenues. Benefits were then paid from the money in the Social Security Trust Funds. Over the years, more than $8.7 trillion has been paid into the Trust Funds, and more than $7.4 trillion has been paid out in benefits. The remainder is currently on reserve in the Trust Funds and will be used to pay future benefits.

Now, Guy, aren’t you the one that’s always complaining that there’s no such thing as a trust fund? How can you reference a site, then, that represents suggestions of evidence to the contrary? Are the $1.3 trillion claimed on the site to which you sent us to be believed?

Just to circle back, this does argue for Gab’s point that explained:

When Social Security was instituted, beneficiaries started collecting right away. Where did the money come from? At its institution, the program received revenue from the workers at the same time it payed out, just as it does today. It’s a pay-as-you-go system where the money going in is actually going directly to current beneficiaries, not to a fund that will be accessed when those workers retire.

It’s just that the actual money begain flowing in both directions in 1937.

Now, the reason Guy called me an ignorant slut was because of the following excerpt he quoted from one of my previous posts:

"Gab says that by 1950 there were 16.5 workers per beneficiary. Guy now quotes that for the past 30 years, the ratio of workers to beneficiaries has been relatively — has been actually completely flat: 3.3 workers to support every one beneficiary.

" ….. Something happened between 1950 and 1975 that caused the rate to plunge from 16.5 to 3.3 workers per beneficiary? I suppose it coincides neatly with the career of Elvis Presley… but I have a hard time believing that Elvis’s death sent everyone into early retirement."

I still don’t see the numbers adding up, Guy. By the same graph that you subsequently posted, it is clear by comparing the green (2000) section to the yellow (1950) section that the ratio of workers to retirees has not decreased at all.  Eyeballing the figures, it appears that in 2000 there are 160 million working-age people to 36 million retirement-age people. In 1950, it appears there were something like 12 million retirees for 80 million workers… a difference to be sure, but not a vastly different ratio on the order of 16.5 to 3.3! Do you have the table behind the figures, Guy?

Women have entered the workforce since 1950 which must more than offset any working age people that were leaving the workforce. How can the ratio have gone down so dramatically? Yes, retirees are living longer…but the retirement age is higher… I didn’t even take that into consideration when I eyeballed the numbers in your graph.

The numbers just aren’t there. They just don’t add up.  I’m not talking about what will happen when the boomers retire here, I’m talking about how the alarmist statement that we have gone from roughly 16.5 workers per retiree in 1950 to 3.3 today can possibly be true on its face. It cannot be that those two statistics represent comparable pieces of information. Perhaps the disability or survivor or another benefit of SS that was created since 1950 accounts for the disparity?

Remember that your social-security-is-doomed argument requires proof that it’s in decline. What if you’ve accepted numbers that are misleading if not purposely deceptive?

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Updating my positions

[One of the things about the objective part of the site is that one may discover that he frequently changes his positions without realizing he has done so. This isn't the first time I have said to myself, "I took that stand???"]

I don’t agree with Gore’s lockbox… though I think I’ve agreed with it before. I like the idea that an entity can decide how to finance obligations and manage funds in ways that maximize their utility and take advantage of the time value of money.

If someone I trust were to say to me, "please hold these million dollars for me for the next two months" (let’s presume I have knowledge that there’s nothing illegal), I would not go out and open an account to keep the money separate from my own. I would just keep track of it, but comingle it with my own. Then when the time came to pay it back, I’d say, "but you GAVE me that money!" And my "friend" would never, ever see a penny of it again.

But, for the purposes of my analogy, let’s presume that I actually did return the money to my friend as requested. I may have benefited from the holding of the money during that time. I don’t think there’s anything inherently wrong with that. Don’t get hung up on the friend situation, either, I could just as well have sold a house and been waiting to purchase another one.

It makes financial sense to manage your money. Managing your money means not going out and borrowing to pay an obligation at a higher cost than that which you are earning by storing away different funds for the future.

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I’m more ape than man

Wow! I screwed up. What I meant to ask here is if there are "alternatives" to evolution rather than "criticisms".

Donovan’s take caught me by surprise because I didn’t think this was about "evolution" but about the alternatives… I’m going to propose another issue and leave this one here. I think most people that accept evolution as the prevaling theory would agree that there are legitimate criticisms of it… which may serve to temper the criticisms of the "God decides which keystroke I’m going to press next" crowd, et al.

I’m more ape than man

Wow! I screwed up. What I meant to ask here is if there are "alternatives" to evolution rather than "criticisms".

Donovan’s take caught me by surprise because I didn’t think this was about "evolution" but about the alternatives… I’m going to propose another issue and leave this one here. I think most people that accept evolution as the prevaling theory would agree that there are legitimate criticisms of it… which may serve to temper the criticisms of the "God decides which keystroke I’m going to press next" crowd, et al.

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A couple of books

The first book is the seminal treatise on Design Patterns. It’s the book that everyone else refers to in their other books. There’s a lot of good stuff but the samples are all in C++ so you have to do your own implementations in other languages.

The second book is more practical for the C# developer. There are code examples using the .Net Framework that you can examine. Some of the examples are unfortunately more academic than I think they could have been. It would have been much more useful to address the kind of situations you find in business or daily life. Instead, for some reason, writers like to use examples having to do with acceleration of rockets and that kind of stuff…as though we were all, literally, rocket scientists.

In either case, these books are very good at communicating best practices for software design. Once you see these patterns in action and compare them to the way you normally would have implemented these things, you quickly realize the savings in time and worry.