Geoff Decker’s whereIstand blog

At Major League Basbeall’s mid-season, The Big Lead’s Jason McIntyre and ProJo columnist/ESPN analyst Sean McAdam occupied the top spots in our first edition of the prediction accuracy rankings.

The most accurate were rewarded for picking four of six teams in first on July 1: Angels, Phillies, Cubs and Diamondbacks. These teams were popular preseason picks, but NO ONE saw the Rays or Twins/White Sox winning their divisions, so no one had a chance at perfection. The least accurate guys were penalized severely for picking any combination of teams out of contention that were preseason favorites: Tigers, Mariners, Indians and Rockies, Yankees.

As the regular season draws to a close, we’ve updated our rankings. The division race that most affected prediction scores was the National League West. The Dbacks went from a two-game cushion in July to a four-game deficit to the Dodgers. The swing in games vaulted ESPN’s Keith Law, SI’s Jon Heyman and Yahoo! Sports’ Gordon Edes to the top of the rankings. On the opposite end, ESPN Radio’s Mike Greenberg, New York Daily News’ Bill Madden and ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark occupied the bottom three spots.

After the break, the complete list media personalities and news organizations, ranked 1-50 along with their preseason picks:

End of Season MLB Prediction Accuracy Report

(updatedL 9.29.08. Point differential and change in standings in parenthesis)

1. Law, Keith (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 60 points

2. Heyman, Jon (Sports Illustrated): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 58 points

3. Edes, Gordon (Boston Globe): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 58 points

4. McAdam, Sean (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dbacks - 56 points

5. McIntyre, Jason (The Big Lead): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dbacks - 56 points

6. Kurkjian, Tim (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 55 points

7. Neyer, Rob (ESPN): Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 54 points

8. Marchman, Tim (NY Sun): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points

9. Klapisch, Bob (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points

10. Albom, Mitch (Detroit Free Press): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points

11. Crasnick, Jerry (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points

12. Leitch, Will (New York Magazine): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points

13. Sheehan, Joe (Baseball Prospectus): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points

14. Posnanski, Joe (Kansas City Star): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points

15. Golic, Mike (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers - 53 points

16. Keri, Jonah (ESPN): Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points

17. Van Pelt, Scott (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Dbacks - 51 points

18. Rogers, Phil (Chicago Tribune): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 50 points

19. Tafoya, Michele (ESPN): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 49 points

20. Karabell, Eric (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Phillies, Cubs, Dbacks - 49 points

21. Shaughnessy, Dan (Boston Globe): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 47 points

22. The Associated Press: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 47 points

23. Cimilluca, Greg (CBSSportsline): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Padres - 46 points

24. Schlegel, John (MLB.com): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 45 points

25. The Sporting News: Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Braves, Cubs, Dbacks - 44 points

26. Miller, Scott (CBSSportsline): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Phillies, Cubs, Dbacks - 44 points

27. Phillips, Steve (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 43 points

28. Sharp, Drew (Detroit Free Press): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Reds, Dodgers - 43 points

29. Gammons, Peter (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Braves, Cubs, Dbacks - 42 points

30. Davidoff, Ken (Newsday): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 41 points

31. Shea, John (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 41 points

32. Passan, Jeff: Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers - 41 points

33. The New York Times: Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 41 points

34. ESPN The Mag: Yankees, Indians, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 40 points

35. Verducci, Tom (SI): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 39 points

36. Ryan, Bob (Boston Globe): Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers - 39 points

37. Sports Illustrated: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 39 points

38. Bialik, Carl (WSJ.com): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Reds, Rockies - 38 points

39. The Los Angeles Times: Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 38 points

40. Nelson, Amy (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dbacks - 37 points

41. Kaufman, King (Salon): Yankees, Indians, Angels, Braves, Brewers, Dbacks - 36 points

42. Herbstreit, Kirk (ESPN): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Reds, Dbacks 35 points

43. Belth, Alex (SI.com): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 33 points

44. Pascarelli, Peter (ESPN): Yankees, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers - 33 points

45. Tirico, Mike (ESPN): Yankees, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers - 33 points

46. Gomez, Pedro (ESPN): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers - 33 points

47. Olney, Buster (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Rockies - 29 points

48. Madden, Bill (NY Daily News): Blue Jays, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dbacks - 28 points

49. Stark, Jayson (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Rockies - 24 points

50. Greenberg, Mike (ESPN): Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Rockies - 18 points

About the rankings:

• Each prediction and its original source, can be found by browsing whereIstand.com’s MLB Regular Season Predictions page. Click on the ‘opinions’ link for each prediction to see how many people picked what team in each division.

• Team scores are weighted based on their relative place in their division. Scroll down to “Statistical Method” to see details.

• The regular season is NOT complete and some races haven’t necessarily concluded. Games could still be gained or lost, which would minimally affect the rankings. I’ll be sure to update them as games are played in next couple days.

• Previous rankings of each individual is in parenthesis.

NFL Regular Season Predictions

We’re doing the same thing for the 2008 NFL Regular Season, which can be seen on the NFL Regular Season Predictions page. There’s still time for anyone to participate and make their predictions alongside the sports media personalities. (Granted the season is already almost 1/3 of the way over and you’ll be getting a huge advantage over the 40+ sports media personalities who submitted their predictions in the preseason, but it’ll just make you look all the more prophetic, right?)

Register for whereIstand.com today and start opining like the “experts”.

Statistical Method

Scores were based on team standings as of Friday, September 26. Picks for a first place team are worth 12 points; Points determined for second, third, fourth and fifth place teams are weighted on a scale of depreciating value based on how many games back they were on this day. The rankings above are based on the accumulative scores of each of the six teams (one per division) that an individual picked. To see what each team is valued at, see below.

Points for teams based on division standings as of September 26, 2008:

AL EAST

Tampa Bay Rays - 12 points

Boston Red Sox -10

New York Yankees - 4

Toronto Blue Jays -1

Baltimore Orioles - 0

AL CENTRAL

Minnesota Twins - 12

Chicago White Sox -12

Cleveland Indians -5

Detroit Tigers - 0

Kansas City Royals - 0

AL WEST

Los Angeles Angels - 12

Texas Rangers - 0

Oakland Athletics - 0

Seattle Mariners - 0

NL EAST

Philadelphia Phillies - 12

New York Mets - 9

Florida Marlins - 5

Atlanta Braves - 0

Washington Nationals - 0
NL CENTRAL

Chicago Cubs - 12

Milwaukee Brewers -5

Houston Astros -1

St. Louis Cardinals -1

Cincinnati Reds - 0

Pittsburgh Pirates - 0

NL WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers - 12

Arizona Diamondbacks -10

Colorado Rockies -2

San Francisco Giants -0

San Diego Padres - 0

Tags: Baseball, Predictions

This entry was posted on Friday, September 26th, 2008 at 1:08 pm and is filed under Baseball, Predictions, whereIstand. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.