At Basbeall’s mid-season, The Big Lead’s Jason McIntyre and ProJo columnist/ESPN analyst Sean McAdam occupied the top spots in our first edition of the prediction accuracy rankings.
As the regular season draws to a close, we’ve updated our rankings. The division race that most affected prediction scores was the National League West. The Arizona Diamondbacks went from a two-game cushion in July to a four-game deficit to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The swing in games vaulted ESPN’s Keith Law, Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman and Yahoo! Sports’ Gordon Edes to the top of the rankings. On the opposite end, ESPN Radio’s Mike Greenberg, New York Daily News’ Bill Madden and ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark occupied the bottom three spots.
The most accurate were rewarded for picking no more than four division winners: the Angels, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and the Diamondbacks. These teams were popular preseason picks, but not one person in the rankings foresaw the Tampa Bay Rays or Twins/White Sox winning their respective divisions and so perfection was not attained. The least accurate were penalized for picking any combination of teams that finished far out of contention: the Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Indians, Colorado Rockies and New York Yankees.
After the break, the complete list media personalities and news organizations, ranked 1-50 along with their preseason picks, as well as a statistical method:
End of Season MLB Prediction Accuracy Report
(updatedL 9.29.08. Point differential and change in standings in parenthesis)
1. Law, Keith (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 60 points
2. Heyman, Jon (Sports Illustrated): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 58 points
3. Edes, Gordon (Boston Globe): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 58 points
4. McAdam, Sean (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dbacks - 56 points
5. McIntyre, Jason (The Big Lead): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dbacks - 56 points
6. Kurkjian, Tim (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 55 points
7. Neyer, Rob (ESPN): Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 54 points
8. Marchman, Tim (NY Sun): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points
9. Klapisch, Bob (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points
10. Albom, Mitch (Detroit Free Press): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points
11. Crasnick, Jerry (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points
12. Leitch, Will (New York Magazine): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points
13. Sheehan, Joe (Baseball Prospectus): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points
14. Posnanski, Joe (Kansas City Star): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points
15. Golic, Mike (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers - 53 points
16. Keri, Jonah (ESPN): Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 53 points
17. Van Pelt, Scott (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Brewers, Dbacks - 51 points
18. Rogers, Phil (Chicago Tribune): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 50 points
19. Tafoya, Michele (ESPN): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 49 points
20. Karabell, Eric (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Phillies, Cubs, Dbacks - 49 points
21. Shaughnessy, Dan (Boston Globe): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 47 points
22. The Associated Press: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 47 points
23. Cimilluca, Greg (CBSSportsline): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Padres - 46 points
24. Schlegel, John (MLB.com): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 45 points
25. The Sporting News: Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Braves, Cubs, Dbacks - 44 points
26. Miller, Scott (CBSSportsline): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Phillies, Cubs, Dbacks - 44 points
27. Phillips, Steve (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers - 43 points
28. Sharp, Drew (Detroit Free Press): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Reds, Dodgers - 43 points
29. Gammons, Peter (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Braves, Cubs, Dbacks - 42 points
30. Davidoff, Ken (Newsday): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 41 points
31. Shea, John (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 41 points
32. Passan, Jeff: Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers - 41 points
33. The New York Times: Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 41 points
34. ESPN The Mag: Yankees, Indians, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Dbacks - 40 points
35. Verducci, Tom (SI): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 39 points
36. Ryan, Bob (Boston Globe): Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers - 39 points
37. Sports Illustrated: Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 39 points
38. Bialik, Carl (WSJ.com): Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Mets, Reds, Rockies - 38 points
39. The Los Angeles Times: Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 38 points
40. Nelson, Amy (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dbacks - 37 points
41. Kaufman, King (Salon): Yankees, Indians, Angels, Braves, Brewers, Dbacks - 36 points
42. Herbstreit, Kirk (ESPN): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Mets, Reds, Dbacks 35 points
43. Belth, Alex (SI.com): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Cubs, Rockies - 33 points
44. Pascarelli, Peter (ESPN): Yankees, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers - 33 points
45. Tirico, Mike (ESPN): Yankees, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers - 33 points
46. Gomez, Pedro (ESPN): Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers - 33 points
47. Olney, Buster (ESPN): Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Rockies - 29 points
48. Madden, Bill (NY Daily News): Blue Jays, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Dbacks - 28 points
49. Stark, Jayson (ESPN): Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Rockies - 24 points
50. Greenberg, Mike (ESPN): Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Cubs, Rockies - 18 points
About the rankings:
- Each prediction and its original source, can be found by browsing whereIstand.com’s MLB Regular Season Predictions page. Click on the ‘opinions’ link for each prediction to see how many people picked what team in each division.
- Team scores are weighted based on their relative place in their division. Scroll down to “Statistical Method” to see details.
- The regular season is NOT complete and some races haven’t necessarily concluded. Games could still be gained or lost, which would minimally affect the rankings. I’ll be sure to update them as games are played in next couple days.
- Previous rankings of each individual is in parenthesis.
NFL Regular Season Predictions
We’re doing the same thing for the 2008 NFL Regular Season, which can be seen on the NFL Regular Season Predictions page. There’s still time for anyone to participate and make their predictions alongside the sports media personalities. (Granted the season is already almost 1/3 of the way over and you’ll be getting a huge advantage over the 40+ sports media personalities who submitted their predictions in the preseason, but it’ll just make you look all the more prophetic, right?)
Register for whereIstand.com today and start opining like the “experts”.
Statistical Method
Scores were based on team standings as of Friday, September 26. Picks for a first place team are worth 12 points; Points determined for second, third, fourth and fifth place teams are weighted on a scale of depreciating value based on how many games back they were on this day. The rankings above are based on the accumulative scores of each of the six teams (one per division) that an individual picked. To see what each team is valued at, see below.
Points for teams based on division standings as of September 26, 2008:
AL EAST
Tampa Bay Rays - 12 points
Boston Red Sox -10
New York Yankees - 4
Toronto Blue Jays -1
Baltimore Orioles - 0
AL CENTRAL
Minnesota Twins - 12
Chicago White Sox -12
Cleveland Indians -5
Detroit Tigers - 0
Kansas City Royals - 0
AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels - 12
Texas Rangers - 0
Oakland Athletics - 0
Seattle Mariners - 0
NL EAST
Philadelphia Phillies - 12
New York Mets - 9
Florida Marlins - 5
Atlanta Braves - 0
Washington Nationals - 0
NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs - 12
Milwaukee Brewers -5
Houston Astros -1
St. Louis Cardinals -1
Cincinnati Reds - 0
Pittsburgh Pirates - 0
NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers - 12
Arizona Diamondbacks -10
Colorado Rockies -2
San Francisco Giants -0
San Diego Padres - 0
Tags: Baseball, Predictions
I’d really like to be included in your poll for 2009. I have the lead baseball writer with NBC Sports.com for seven-plus years, and my track record for picks speaks for itself:
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/tmpred06.htm.
You also can check out the nbcsports.com site to find me. Let me know if you will include me in ‘09. Thanks!
Tony DeMarco
303-808-4686
Tony, can you send a link to your predictions for the 2008 season? I can still add them.
email me - geoff@whereIstand.com
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