The search for WMDs, Part Trente Deux

June 23rd, 2006 by Clark

The NYTimes reports today on a small faction of folks, ordinary citizens like you and I, who are convinced that the case for the existence of WMDs in Iraq can still be made.

The United States government abandoned the search for unconventional weapons in Iraq long ago. But Dave Gaubatz has never given up.

Mr. Gaubatz, an earnest, Arabic-speaking investigator who spent the first months of the war as an Air Force civilian in southern Iraq, has said he has identified four sites where residents said chemical weapons were buried in concrete bunkers.

The sites were never searched, he said, and he is not going to let anyone forget it.

"I just don’t want the weapons to fall into the wrong hands," Mr. Gaubatz, of Denton, Tex., said.

Rick Santorum’s on board. I love to pick on Rick:

The proponents include some members of Congress. Two Republicans, Representative Peter Hoekstra of Michigan, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania held a news conference on Wednesday to announce that, as Mr. Santorum put it, "We have found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq."

American intelligence officials hastily scheduled a background briefing for the news media on Thursday to clarify that. Hoekstra and Mr. Santorum were referring to an Army report that described roughly 500 munitions containing "degraded" mustard or sarin gas, all manufactured before the 1991 gulf war and found scattered through Iraq since 2003.

Such shells had previously been reported and do not change the government conclusion, the officials said.

The absurdity here, of course, is that the entire point of the war was preemptive action against a supposedly hostile nation. The existence of scattered munitions does nothing to support the Bush Administration’s reasoning for this petroleum war. In his book State of War, NYTimes reporter James Risen writes about the wishful WMD thinking of the pre-war Administration. According to Risen, this was the CIA’s response to their informants:

The CIA man smiled, nodded, and left. Sawsan Alhaddad’s debriefing report was filed along with all the others from the family members who had agreed to return to Baghdad to contact Iraqi weapons scientists.

All of them-some thirty-had said the same thing. They all reported to the CIA that the scientists had said that Iraq’s programs to develop nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons had long since been abandoned. [The] program to use family members to contact dozens of Iraqi scientists had garnered remarkable results and given the CIA an accurate assessment of the abandoned state of Iraq’s weapons programs months before the US invasion in March 2003. (p. 105-6)

Even if  WMDs were floating around Iraq like ghosts of Gulf Wars past, without the infrastructure necessary to launch an attack, well…so what?

A few more observations from the article:

Mr. Hoekstra "has said on many occasions that we need to know what happened to Saddam’s W.M.D.," his spokesman, Jamal Ware, said. Mr. Hoekstra "is determined to make sure that we get the postwar intelligence right," Mr. Ware added.

Get the postwar intelligence right? Dude, not sure if you know about this, but the war’s been going on for 3 years. The President landed on the aircraft, civil war has erupted, and more people are dying in the region from terrorism than before the war. Wait a minute, why the hell is the Iraq War being run in reverse? I remember very distinctly a solid rule of war I learned from my 9th grade social studies class: you’d better have a damn good reason to go to fight before you send your own soldiers to die, and I know that Rep. Hoekstra has completed the 9th grade. It’s preposterous that people are still standing up to defend this Administration of cowards and thugs.

Finally, it seems from the following statement that Dave Gaubatz, the main guy in this revived search for WMDs, a guy who spent 23 years in the Air Force and was an investigator for the retailer Target, is really searching for assurance that his country didn’t lie to him in the pre-war lead-up, as if such a thing were possible.

"I didn’t imagine it would be a battle to get them to search," he said. "One of the primary reasons for going into combat was the W.M.D."

Give it up, Dave. Your country lied to you and everyone else in the world. I know, it’s like the time you found out Santa isn’t real and that mommy works at a place with lots of shiny silver poles called Jugs n’ Things.

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American Poverty

June 21st, 2006 by Clark

It’s just getting increasingly absurd how badly Republicans have screwed working people during their tenure controlling Congress. (I won’t even get into the Democrats attempting to form a cohesive platform on the minimum wage issue, because frankly they have a hard time coming up with a cohesive platform on anything.)

It’s why bills like this one, which seeks to increase minimum wage, continually get stuck in committee. And why Ted Kennedy’s recently proposed minimum wage legislation will probably also end up in the committee abyss. Even if it is passed, it would only provide an increase to 7.25/hr, still far below an adequate living wage.

I really have a hard time fathoming what is going through Republican legislators’ minds when they point to the free market as the only true way for working people to gain higher wages. They use the words "fair" "economic" and "system" in the same breath, but "fair" seems to be a pretty egregious misnomer. There is no conclusive research that businesses would suffer or unemployment would increase as a result of a minimum wage increase. All the evidence shows the opposite, that the best economic system is one where the government does step in and provide for its citizens when necessary. Not quite Keynesian, not quite Friedmanian.

The Employment Policy Institute raises a fair point:

Many low-income persons are not affected because they do not work or they work few hours.

However, it fails to show that the minimum wage is a detriment. Certainly there are a  slew of other employment problems facing America’s low income employees, and one of the big ones is that they aren’t paid enough per hour.

I’m backed up in this post by Card and Kreuger’s well known minimum wage research done in the early 1990s:

 

• Studies by David Card and Alan Krueger of the 1990-91 federal minimum wage increase, as well of several state minimum wage increases, found no measurable negative impact on employment.  One of the state studies found that New Jersey’s 1992 minimum wage increase had no measurable impact on employment in fast-food restaurants. 

• A 1998 Economic Policy Institute study found no  significant job loss associated with the 1996-97 federal minimum wage increase.

The Republicans’ viewpoint is largely ideological. I am telling you republicans now: this is not socialism, this is not communism, this is not any ism. This is common sense. What it comes down to is this: Help. Working. People. Make. Enough. To. Buy. Food. And. Clothes. For. Their. Kids

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Al-Qaida in Iraq

June 15th, 2006 by Clark

The AP reported today on some documents found in Zarqawi’s bunker:

A blueprint for trying to start a war between the United States and Iran was among a "huge treasure" of documents found in the hideout of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Iraqi officials said Thursday.

The document, purporting to reflect al-Qaida policy and its cooperation with groups loyal to ousted President Saddam Hussein, also appear to show that the insurgency in Iraq was weakening.

Good thing Bush has been (a bit) more reserved and seems (sort of) willing to work unilaterally in confronting Iran than he was with Iraq. Maybe he won’t continue to play into the hands of Al-Qaida…ah, wishful thinking…

What else is interesting is that the terrorist group formerly run by Zarqawi is continually referred to as a wing of Al-Qaida, which makes sense considering the group’s name, Al-Qaida in Iraq.

But I’m not aware, nor have I seen any evidence, that Al-Qaida in Iraq has significant ties to Bin Ladin’s Al-Qaida. In fact, before September 2004, Zarqawi’s network was called Monotheism and Holy War Movement (translated from Arabic). The name change to Al-Qaida in Iraq seems wholly political, in that the group’s focus turned toward eradicating the US from Iraq. If that’s the angle your terrorist network is going to take, it would make sense to adopt the name of the major enemy of US forces. The name change works well for the US propaganda machine, too, as it provides a clearly definable enemy.

With a name like Al-Qaida in Iraq, how could they not be a part of the overall Al-Qaida network? While there may certainly be links between the two groups, they were rivals for a time, and I’m not convinced they should be referred to synonymously .

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President Bush, Clearly the Anti-Activist

June 5th, 2006 by Clark

At a press conference held today concerning the Marriage Protection Amendment, President Bush said,

You come from many backgrounds and faith traditions, yet united in this common belief: Marriage is the most fundamental institution of civilization, and it should not be redefined by activist judges.

"Activist judges"? What the president is really referring to is our system of checks and balances. The Executive Branch was not designed to be dictatorship; it is only one part of the hydra-like monster we happily refer to as the federal government.

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Bush Republicans

June 3rd, 2006 by Clark

This article from the BBC provides some insight into some of the rhetoric we’ll be hearing from the democrats in the upcoming months:

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said: "Bush Republicans would rather focus on purely divisive manoeuvres than real solutions that address the growing energy crisis."

I imagine the term "Bush Republican" will be thrown around quite a bit during the midterm elections. No matter how they might try to convince voters otherwise,  republicans will have to contend with the fact that Bush has been their party’s main man for 6 years.

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Our humble servant

May 26th, 2006 by Clark

I haven’t posted anything in a while, but we all know about this, right?

Q Mr. President, you spoke about missteps and mistakes in Iraq. Could I ask both of you which missteps and mistakes of your own you most regret?

PRESIDENT BUSH: Sounds like kind of a familiar refrain here — saying "bring it on," kind of tough talk, you know, that sent the wrong signal to people. I learned some lessons about expressing myself maybe in a little more sophisticated manner — you know, "wanted dead or alive," that kind of talk. I think in certain parts of the world it was misinterpreted, and so I learned from that. And I think the biggest mistake that’s happened so far, at least from our country’s involvement in Iraq is Abu Ghraib. We’ve been paying for that for a long period of time.

My italics and bold, duh.

Wow, so…humility? From Bush? I’m shocked and appalled. At least he hasn’t given up those wacky nicknames.


PRESIDENT BUSH: Stretch.

Q Thank you, Mr. President.

PRESIDENT BUSH: I call him Stretch.

I’m guessing the reason the President of the United States calls this guy ‘Stretch’ is that the guy is tall. Clever.

Okay, so Bush still has a long way to go. And displaying a touch of humility six years into his presidency is too little, far, far, far too late.

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No, this isn’t the president’s social security number…

May 11th, 2006 by Clark

President Bush met yesterday with victims of identity theft in what can only be called Phase 2492 in the War Against People Thinking About Stuff That Actually Matters. Our leader said:

Identity theft is a serious problem in America. I have just listened to the horror stories from fellow citizens who have had their identities stolen. I listened to their ideas about how the federal government can help in the response in not only dealing with those who commit the crime, but helping those who have been victimized. And I want to thank you all for joining us. Thanks a lot.

According to this website, there were 700,000 identity theft victims last year. That’s .23% of the population. Wow. Think of the children.

I’ve never been a victim of identity theft and I’m sure it’s not a pleasant experience, but with approval ratings nearing the 20s, doesn’t the president have greater things to worry about?

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The Freak Show in the Information Age

May 9th, 2006 by Clark

David Blaine’s Drowned Alive on ABC last night was the greatest thing I have ever seen.

Seriously.

Well, at least the greatest thing I’ve ever seen on television. Now, let me say that I’m a religious Sopranos fan, so I know good television when I see it, or so the critics would have me believe.

But nothing beats a perfectly produced, perfectly scripted reality freak-show on national television. To paraphrase Lenin, Drowned Alive and shows of its ilk have reached the highest stage of television entertainment.

It feels odd to write all this, considering that I hated nearly every second of the program. I hated it for the unabashed spectacle, for making me interested in it even though I didn’t want to be.

But I also loved it for the same reasons that we all tuned in: the specter of death looming over Blaine (never mind the team of trained divers and the Yale doctor mere feet away), the back story of how he prepared for the event with the Navy SEALS, the touching story of two married diving enthusiasts, one who … ah … diedinafreakaccidentalmost600feetbelowwater….yeah, that part wasn’t weird or manipulative at all…

Point is, anything that can make one feel both love and hate simultaneously is truly excellent.

Even though Blaine didn’t make his goal of holding his breath for 9 minutes (he got to just over 7 minutes…chump…), he still emerged from the tank striking his best Jesus Christ Pose as the divers held his mouth up to the sweet, sweet oxygen.

And when he spoke, oh lord did he speak! He said he was "humbled" – unable to cry because of dehydration – in a speech that had clearly been rehearsed a thousand times during his week underwater. Unfortunately for Blaine, it was the loser speech, not the winner speech.

Such is entertainment in the information age. As things move faster and our attention spans become shorter, bearded ladies and seven-toed mongoloids will no longer due. No, we need more. We need death; we need to see someone’s weird water-induced rashes; we need announcer Stuart Scott’s lazy eye and his baited breath – "David wants to say something!"

And we need a water bubble plopped down outside the same Lincoln Center that houses the Julliard School and The Metropolitan Opera, a bubble containing an individual whose thirst for attention is never satiated.

God Bless you David Blaine. You have done nothing short of entertain us in your 33 precious years on this fine earth.

http://www.whereistand.com/10774

Dali and Houdini are not impressed.

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The circle of life

May 8th, 2006 by Clark

Oh good, the guy the president has nominated to head the CIA was the guy in charge of the NSA when the president ordered wiretaps on US citizens.

Actually, it all makes perfect sense…

All the while, Russ Feingold’s censure resolution will probably never make it out of committee.

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More jobs good (but less pay bad)

May 8th, 2006 by Clark

The president recently spoke about the fine shape of the US economy:

Today we got some good news: 138,000 additional Americans found jobs over the last month, which is good; the national unemployment rate is 4.7 percent. This economy is strong.

And one of the hopeful things about our economy is small businesses are doing well. Small businesses provide most of the job growth in our country. The small business sector is doing well; so is the American economy.

Nevermind that the president was speaking from a local Washington, DC hardware store when he probably would have much preferred to be doing a little more mutual palm greasing with the Walton family.

In any case, an increase in jobs is good, but is only one aspect of a strong economy. Research on real wages from 2005 by jobwatch.org indicates that the economy is not as robust as the president would have us believe.

For low- and middle-wage workers, as well as those with a high school degree, real wages fell last year by 1%-2%. Those at the top of the wage scale experienced marginal gains, and real wages were essentially unchanged for college graduates.

The decline in real wages for these groups of workers was the result of a variety of factors. As shown in an earlier analysis, nominal wage growth slowed over the past few years as the slack in the job market ultimately slowed the momentum coming out of the full-employment job market of the latter 1990s. Inflation was also a factor last year, as energy costs drove prices higher (on average for the year, inflation was up 2.7% in 2004 and 3.4% in 2005). Thus, nominal wages needed to grow that much faster to beat price growth.

As gas prices have only increased since 2005, the disparity between what people make and what they can afford continues to increase. When the cogs that make the economy go boom can’t afford the things that economy produces, there is a real problem.

Historical norms – not an end-all piece of evidence by any means, but useful nonetheless – indicate that last year’s economy should have actually produced more jobs than it did.

Last year’s 2 million new jobs represented a gain of 1.5%, a sluggish growth rate by historical standards (see chart below). In fact, it is less than half of the average growth rate of 3.5% for the same stage of previous business cycles that lasted as long. At that pace, we would have created 4.6 million jobs last year.

Unless we want an economy built on a foundation of straw, real wages need to adjust for natural and unnatural rises in inflation. Without the checks and balances formerly included in our economic system – strong unions, a congress responsive to minimum wage increase requests – this increase in real wages is unlikely to happen and the consequence will be a working and middle class that will continue to see declines in their previously high levels of purchasing power.

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